As a result of our work helping health care providers forecast PPE needs related to the spread of COVID-19, we derived hyper-localized forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 for both the United States and England. We felt our work was worth sharing with our larger community in case anyone finds this useful in similar projects. If you have comments or questions, feel free to post in the github repo linked below. If you are struggling to include COVID-19 into your plans, please email firstname.lastname@example.org
This page tracks measures of Rt (the reproduction number), an epidemiological value tracking the growth and spread of a virus. Simply put, it represents the mean number of new cases generated by an infectious individual. A number below one implies that, on average, an infectious individual will infect less than one other person, therefore leading to a decrease in the spread of the virus. Likewise, a reproduction number greater than one implies an increasing spread of the virus.
“The model we use is based on the work of Bettencourt et al, with notebooks building off of the work by Kevin Systrom.
The codebase and notebooks can be viewed on github.
Case Count Data is sourced from: USA Facts (USA) and Data.gov.uk (England).
Population Data sourced from: County Health Rankings (USA) and Data.gov.uk (England)”
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