COVID England

As a result of our work helping health care providers forecast PPE needs related to the spread of COVID-19, we derived hyper-localized forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 for both the United States and England.  We felt our work was worth sharing with our larger community in case anyone finds this useful in similar projects.  If you have comments or questions, feel free to post in the github repo linked below. If you are struggling to include COVID-19 into your plans, please email

This page tracks measures of Rt (the reproduction number), an epidemiological value tracking the growth and spread of a virus. Simply put, it represents the mean number of new cases generated by an infectious individual.  A number below one implies that, on average, an infectious individual will infect less than one other person, therefore leading to a decrease in the spread of the virus. Likewise, a reproduction number greater than one implies an increasing spread of the virus.

“The model we use is based on the work of Bettencourt et al, with notebooks building off of the work by Kevin Systrom.
The codebase and notebooks can be viewed on github.
Case Count Data is sourced from: USA Facts (USA) and (England).
Population Data sourced from: County Health Rankings (USA) and (England)”  

Raw Data Files:
USA (County Level)
USA (State Level)

England (Region Level)
England (Lower Tier Local Authority Level)

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  The information contained on this website [or in the above model] is based on, or obtained from, publicly available information with respect to [COVID-19 research] produced by entities other than CKM. CKM has not sought or obtained consent from any third party to use any statements or information. Any such statements or information should not be viewed as indicating the support of such third party for the views expressed in this website [or specific model].  All information contained herein is provided “as is” and no warranties, promises and/or representations of any kind, expressed or implied, are given as to the nature, standard, accuracy or otherwise of the information provided in this website [or in the above model] nor to the suitability or otherwise of the information to your particular circumstances.  Viewers of this information should not rely on any of the information provided on this website [or in the above model] — CKM is not a public or private medical health organization and its employees are not certified medical professionals or part of any health organization.  In no event shall CKM and its related, affiliated and subsidiary companies, be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the information herein.